MX: New Financial Instruments

With the rise of Identification schemes like UID, soon all marriages will be registered and the day is not far when our relationships will have a financial derivative for themselves i.e. a representation of the stability of marriages in form of an economic trade-off, a marriage price or stock price, as it will be called. When all stocks like these will be traded on speculation or by diagnosing community traits, we will have an MX, a Marriage Exchange. Well why not? If we can have those filthy sub-primes running down the economic pipelines why not some more random and interesting derivatives like these. Well, I am sure it will churn the world.

After all, sociology will find its real economic value. But what can be the pros and cons? Well soon we will have an insurance product that acts like 'Meher'. No marriage without that insurance product, wow!, what an idea Sirjee! Everyone who marries has to buy that product like you have for your motor-vehicles. Insurance companies and banks will bribe senators so that this instrument gets an opening ceremony from one of the fanatics who will say, "This is the start of new Social Order in the World and that through Capitalism. God Bless all couples." And soon, there will be trading charts released in a prominent Bank which has formulated the pivot point after which the marriage will be in chaos. Every sector including Pharma, Fashion, FMCG, etc will start churning strategies such that the intrinsic stock value of the couple increases.

In case you are found roaming with your beautiful wife, the policeman might impound your vehicle (wife) and guess what before you bail her out, your stock value is down on the MX and all debtors are standing at your doorsteps asking for loans because the collateral lost its value, you lost your prestige and guess what the policeman had sucked out all of the oil before you could roam with your vehicle (wife) again. You have to file Chapter 11.

That's MADNESS! And that is what sub-prime mortgage backed securities were, an utter madness. People with loans are out of their houses. Everything was being borrowed using collateral which never existed but on paper being traded in mortgage markets under AAA rating. We should make capitalism improvise our lives but we should not let it be an orgy.

I'm Heretical and I'm Confident.

I would be called 'heretical' if I will say that earth hour is a foul attempt to mitigate the climate change or I refuse to turn off my lights to save energy when there are no outages anywhere in the region. Maybe I am against the whole notion that Humans are causing global warming and I would be among a few group of people who are called insensitive and idiots.

I might be wrong but I am not confused. We have all ignored the daddy of life causing agent on earth: the Sun, not the minute 'we'. Earth's climate has been much hotter than this and much colder than this too. In 1970s we were debating about global cooling and a mini-ice age. but today we are saying that this is because of us. Impossible. It is true that we are exploiting our non-renewable resources but the trends are depressingly hyped and I just don't agree. We have forgotten the main source of temperature called Sun. Look at the red solar activity and black temperature line.

It is interesting to see that even after the second stage of Industrialization started, we had a dip in the temperature curve but it should have risen because of the increased carbon dioxide emissions. So instead of whining about the green house gases we should see that we are not using are non-renewable resources inefficiently and are not destroying our environment like fresh water lakes, etc. Human contribution to green house emissions is only a meager fraction of what volcanoes contribute. Also there is a 800 year lag in the increase in carbon dioxide levels in atmosphere and the average temperature thereby we can deduce that increased temperature causes increased carbon dioxide levels.

So what is the reason behind all this global warming hype? Well, it is Africa's large exploitable resources (coal, petrol, etc). World Bank recently gave 4 billion dollar loan to South Africa for building a coal powered plant. The loan was criticized by the whole of developed world and so called global warming foundations. Well, they want these countries to use unreliable solar and wind energies so that they can suck their resources at back hand and break the cherished African dream to develop. The developing world definitely needs energy to cut back their emissions. The cooking is still dependent on firewood which causes more harm to environment. So what is the argument? Well, I'm not an African but this hyped game is not that difficult to understand. All you need is some right stats.

How to derive satisfaction from a choice?

O God! I am writing after ages and it feels really good. I don't know where I was. Though, let us evolve a mathematical formula for satisfaction. We all have infinite choices to make and to reach to a decision we have a infinite options to select from. You all must have gone to buy a mobile phone and you have a plenty of options, rather infinite of them and after you have bought one which fulfills the functions you wanted and looks fine but you still fancy the ones you left. ' O boy that one had all the features and so low a price but it weighed a bit more.' Isn't it? May be this reveals the magic of market place which is driven by incentives. But how to justify yourself that the option you have chosen stands validated among the infinite options you have rejected?

That is where the formula shown below is useful:-

Satisfaction from a choice (xi) = Pros of choice(xi) - Cons of choice(xi) - Pros of all the rejected choices (∑x=1 to ∞xi) excluding xi.

That is why all of us are unhappy even after making some of the best decisions in our life. Because we carry only the pros of the rejected choices and not the cons but we subtract the cons of the selected choice. Rather we should try to remove the ∑ (sigma) out of the whole equation. This sigma in economics is called opportunity cost of the rejected choice. This removal of opportunity cost will make the choice worth more and increase the satisfaction levels for the decisions for which we are responsible. But physically what is this sigma?

Actually, it is the emotional value of the rejected choices. When women go out to buy saris, after coming to their places, they still fancy the one they left at the shop. And a kid fancies the rejected toy that he would buy the next time. The bride fancies the other possible groom. A graduate fancies the placement he left for something else. We all feel hollowness after leaving something because it is the tendency of human beings to emotionally stick to the things we have rejected and thus, justifying the ∑ in our equation.

Hence, the actual equation representing a rational and emotionless decision is:

Satisfaction from a choice (xi) = Pros of choice(xi) - Cons of choice(xi)

Is it Religion?

If I am one of the senators in a supposedly world govt. (let us assume) and there comes a bill I am awaiting for, "Sciencism Act" which will enforce a new religion all over the world. Let us say that there will be many Gods - the Nobel Gods (Physics, Chemistry, Peace, etc) and other Gods (Engineering). Just imagine we have Einstein as an idol in one of our 'mandirs' and Paul Krugman in the Eco. part of the temple and our grannies would make hymns for Him in the required jargon. Though it would be a better idea than setting up a museum for these great personalities as it would invite more popularity of science. Still, we can all understand the drastic change we have to deliberately bring in our lifestyles. Just imagine our granny saying 'Oh Albert' and we guys yelling out 'Betashit' and what not.

Something like this happened when Christianity was passed as a law in Rome during Augustus rule. The conversion was from Pagan. The point I am stressing here is not the change but the way change had been brought. What was the change for? It was to unite the whole Roman empire under one emperor. Consequently, religion was a play card used by kings to control the citizens or 'praja'.

Take the Ramayana example. Isn't it too ideal? Why? Well, it can also be regarded as an example. I cannot prove the time but Rama seems a very ideal king as one would want to show himself in the media. And Hanumana (another God) already knew that Rama had to incarnate and hence started reciting his name before his birth when he would meditate. Does not he seem as a marketing agent of Rama who knows when will be the product launched. Well, all these are tools to control us. And our daily practices have been so intricately tied with them that we believe it that it is true. We are not educated enough to answer our kids when they ask how was Sun made and what is universe. We tell him that it is the yawn of the Great One and why not fart. I really regret the fanatics who have devoted their lives to the religion because in the end they are just marketing agents of the product launched by some ancient king in the arcane periods. Religion is not belief, it is a tool.

Media and Values

Here is a short essay on our media and the way it is presenting itself with new value system.The media and newsprint are one of those mediums of human expressions which if undermined can lead to downfall of the human values. These are not only reflectors of a society but also the value creators. Today, when we watch the T.V. and watch the initiatives like "The Joy of Giving Week" and other advertisements which promote the etiquette or practices, all of us definitely get enlightened and become more aware. When Oprah Winfrey makes you feel the pulse of all those successful personalities whom we admire, we definitely learn the values.

Values keep on building throughout centuries and we keep on evolving them. But, understanding them and making them presentable is what media is about. No one would have known the fate of Benjamin Franklin better than today. Why is it so that media is such an important tool to create new values and revive the old ones?

Today, media through newspaper is the harbinger of good-morning for a normal office going person. He watches T.V., decides his stock folio and then gets on the job. It all starts right then and with the internet following, the nexus of information has grown by leaps and bounds. With the complexities of society growing and economics playing more important factor than human sensitivities, there is always to bring in new ideas, new practices, better relationships and hence, more human involvement. This involvement calls for better problem solving and hence, relay of all the ideas pouring in all of us because opinions matter. This is not about reflection of society, with everyday news, we solve a new problem and get many more. Hence, when we solve a problem, we initialize a practice.

For example - After the September 11 attacks, security became a concern and a new problem appeared. We were all over the internet blogging, presenting viewpoints but for what? To create a solution. Hence, we came with new congress bills and security became the prime value of our airports which was earlier a mere formality. In this way, we create many solutions daily. But media is right at the centre of this whole process as it helps in conveying ideas, opinions and for connecting public with information through all forms. We have all become more involved in the system that our great fathers have created and the improvisation process will always keep on going because of increasing nature of complex systems we have created for ourselves. But media especially the internet is the core of the whole process doing its duty nicely and I hope it carries on the same.

A Comeback (after all)

I think it is a very long time after I have written another blog. There are a lot of things on my mind but the first thing is the Independence Day which was celebrated a long time ago but my emotions are still volatile. How would any one of us like to visualize India as a country? Well, mine is below:

When India celebrated its 62nd Independence Day this time, it was not about how far we have traveled, it was about who are the travelers? Is it still rural or urban, rich or poor? We have many dimensions to look at that. But when voices like those of A.R. Rahman are in the air with Vande Mataram floating on it, I still feel pain more than pride. India has not been able to do justice to many people and the list is long. Its growth is lop-sided and it worries many.

India has not been able to answer the widows of the brave who laid their lives for saving people like us. It pinches to see on television the lady who today also walks 15 Kilometers to fetch a matka of water. How will India do justice to the bespectacled old people who beg on the traffic lights for one chappati? Why do our small girls still have to miss schools because they have to collect twigs for using it as a fuel? There are millions of them. On one hand we are the country with third largest GDP in PPP terms and on the other hand, largest number of poor can be found here. It is as fascinating as it is shocking. In Punjab, 1 woman is raped every 24 hours and 1 woman is killed every 49 hours. Is this India?

Today also when a Malayali talks to Tamilian he talks in Malayalam while the other understands but still answers it in Tamil. What is that? We are still trying to prove among ourselves who is great but on the other hand our country's greatness is suffering. We will suffer with an India like this, we all will. We are lucky to have a few well educated persons in our parliament but as a matter of fact, 80% of our MPs are facing a trial. We are still unable to be decisive enough that how will India fulfill its future energy needs. Why is India weak to show that it wants gas from Iran and nuclear fuel from Russia and still a nuclear deal from America? Who can or who will stop it? All have vested interests with us and we have in all. Its foreign Policy is indecisive and it still fears China. It should but not the way China wants. We are still weak enough and India cannot stand weak travelers on its own growth path. Soon or later we will topple if we ignore the others who are still sitting on the backseat.

Inefficiency

Wherever I see there is inefficiency,
Whether in resource planning or a simple dwelling,
There is no self-sufficiency.
From power transmission to its distribution,
The power grids, like cricket hits,have no consistency,
Why do people not understand that India needs efficiency,
Improving energy systems from 20% to 40% is an emergency,
Still the obsolete systems lure engineers' tendency.

A village girl cannot go to school,
Because she wastes the day in finding the fuel,
In the modern times, India wont be able to duel,
Because the country which is more efficient will rule,
Till what extent the govt. will ridicule,
the present situation and stare at the remaining resources which are minuscule.

For people have great amounts of money,
And the taxes are heavy,
Still I find it funny,
That govt. is not showing any urgency,
No politician coming forth to implement better systems in his constituency.

Well may be the officials are in a confusion,
Or is the govt in a delusion?
That the liberalization alone can generate better energy provision,
Solar and others are good substitution,
But why does India want to live in bad condition?
When it has technological innovation.

The demand is high,
There is a huge shortage of supply,
To the facts, when will the govt. comply?
That's why I forsee a future which makes my throat dry.